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Chapter 21 - Predictability and targeted observations
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- By Alan J. Thorpe, University of Reading, Guðrún Nína Petersen, University of Reading
- Edited by Tim Palmer, Renate Hagedorn
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- Book:
- Predictability of Weather and Climate
- Published online:
- 03 December 2009
- Print publication:
- 27 July 2006, pp 561-583
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Summary
The aim of this chapter is to provide a summary of the development of the ideas behind, and experiments undertaking, so-called targeted observations of the atmosphere. The scientific issue is the assessment of the role of such targeted observations in improving the skill of numerical weather predictions for time periods up to two weeks ahead. Particular reference will be made to the problem of forecasting extratropical cyclones. Within the context of the international programme THORPEX, a vision of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system of the future will be given involving a two-way interaction between the observing system and the NWP system.
Introduction
Severe windstorms and precipitation cause substantial societal and economic impact. It is therefore important to consider how we can accelerate improvements in predictive skill. There have been tremendous strides forward taken in numerically predicting the weather, and the three day forecasts of surface pressure are now about as accurate as the one day forecasts were 20 years ago. This is one of the greatest scientific achievements of the twentieth century, with huge societal and economic benefits. These advances in numerical weather prediction arise from developments in modelling as well as in making and utilising observations. Ensemble predictions enable us to do probability estimations, the observational capability of satellites have increased tremendously and there have been great advances in variational data assimilation.
However, inaccuracy in initial conditions as well as uncertainties in model formulations still remain a problem.
Looking Backward, Looking Forward: MLA Members Speak
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- Journal:
- PMLA / Publications of the Modern Language Association of America / Volume 115 / Issue 7 / December 2000
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 23 October 2020, pp. 1986-2078
- Print publication:
- December 2000
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